BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

House Finch Population Trend in Virginia

All statesGeneralists

House Finch in Virginia has surged: up 29× on the route-weighted index since 1982.

29×Since 1982TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable House Finch Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

House Finch has surged in Virginia: up 29× on the route-weighted index since 1982.

House Finch Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, House Finch in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.8 (95% range 2.3–7.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-0%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.3–7.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Finch in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.8 (95% range 2.3–7.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19802030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.52.07.0
20274.62.17.1
20284.72.27.2
20294.72.27.2
20304.82.37.3

House Finch Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording House Finch in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fincastle2220251984
Blacksburg1920251988
White Stone1720251985
Jerome1620251987
Stanley1320251980
Pungo1120251990
Covington1020251989
Carters Brdg 21020252015
Brodnax920251987
Star Tannery820251980
Newville820241989
Hall720251989
Hebron 2720252023
Natural Brid620251990
Carters Brdg620141987
Ringgold620251989
Branchville620241987
Gloucester620251992
Brandon620251994
Edinburg520251983
Nat Tunnel520241996
Saltville520251995
Finchley520212006
Brandy Station520252022
Dismal Swamp519971996

House Finch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.