BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

House Finch Population Trend in Virginia

All statesGeneralists

House Finch in Virginia has surged: up 31× on the route-weighted index since 1982.

31×Since 1982TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable House Finch Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

House Finch has surged in Virginia: up 31× on the route-weighted index since 1982.

House Finch Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, House Finch in Virginia is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 4.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 2.2–7.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.2–7.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Finch in Virginia is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 4.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 2.2–7.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19802029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.41.97.0
20264.52.07.0
20274.62.07.1
20284.62.17.1
20294.72.27.2

House Finch Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording House Finch in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Blacksburg2220241988
Pungo1820241990
White Stone1720241985
Irisburg1620241988
Port Royal1420191987
Jerome1120231987
Fincastle1120241984
Brodnax1020241987
Moran820241996
Newville820241989
Amherst720241988
Edinburg620241983
Carters Brdg620141987
Church Road620241993
Branchville620241987
Carters Brdg 2620242015
Stanley520241980
Natural Brid520241990
Hebron 2520242023
Nat Tunnel520241996
Finchley520212006
Gladys520241994
Dismal Swamp519971996
Gloucester520241992
Star Tannery420241980

House Finch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.