BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

House Finch Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesGeneralists

House Finch in Arkansas has surged: up 113% on the route-weighted index since 1993.

+113%Since 1993TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
33YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable House Finch Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

House Finch has surged in Arkansas: up 113% on the route-weighted index since 1993.

House Finch Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, House Finch in Arkansas is projected to fall about 38% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.93 (95% range 0.17–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-38%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.93Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.17–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±62.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Finch in Arkansas is projected to fall about 38% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.93 (95% range 0.17–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19902029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.910.151.7
20260.920.161.7
20270.920.161.7
20280.930.171.7
20290.930.171.7

House Finch Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording House Finch in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Avoca1820241993
South Bend1219911990
Coal Hill920221994
Russell820212011
Wilson720241998
Stark420241998
Massard320211994
Compton320122003
Centerton320242010
Hickory Ridge320102010
England320242010
Hughes220192019
Harrisburg220091993
Zion220242008
Dell220242021
Old Milo120142009
Locust Bayou120131996
Stamps120102007
Hope120222001
Ashdown120152015
Poyen120061998
Hollywood120222003
Saffell120191997
Lurton120162015
Maynard120241994

House Finch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.