BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

House Finch Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGeneralists

House Finch in Minnesota has surged: up 258% on the route-weighted index since 1994.

+258%Since 1994TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable House Finch Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

House Finch has surged in Minnesota: up 258% on the route-weighted index since 1994.

House Finch Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, House Finch in Minnesota is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 0.93 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.72 (95% range 0.00–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.72Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Finch in Minnesota is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 0.93 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.72 (95% range 0.00–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19922029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.770.001.8
20260.760.001.8
20270.750.001.8
20280.730.001.8
20290.720.001.8

House Finch Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording House Finch in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Osseo1520241995
St Stephen1420161992
Courtland1120241997
Minnetonka920241994
Arlington820211999
Whitewater720001994
Chandler420212004
Maynard420151995
Pine River420031998
Le Roy420191995
Ash Creek320241993
Mille Lacs319971997
Edwards320241994
Wylie320231998
Austin320231994
Big Stone320081997
Money Creek220232001
Chatfield219991993
Hartland220151996
Lakeville220191993
Princeton220231992
Knapp220241992
Gluek220072005
Evergreen220221996
Fairmont220141996

House Finch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.