BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

House Finch Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesGeneralists

House Finch in North Carolina has surged: up 49× on the route-weighted index since 1987.

49×Since 1987TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
87Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable House Finch Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

House Finch has surged in North Carolina: up 49× on the route-weighted index since 1987.

House Finch Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, House Finch in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 7.8 (95% range 4.6–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.6–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Finch in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 7.8 (95% range 4.6–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19832029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.34.111
20267.54.211
20277.64.311
20287.74.511
20297.84.611

House Finch Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording House Finch in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Myrtle Grove3420241992
Jarvisburg2919991992
Climax2820241994
Sawmill2420241990
Monticello2320241990
Cypress Lakes2120242007
Wilgrove2020241995
Sheffield1820241991
Siloam1820242005
Jarvisburg 21720222000
Eden1620241987
Flay1620241990
Durham1620241990
Old Trap1620242010
Cokesbury1520241996
Ostwalt1520242012
Youngsville1420241991
Mooresville 21420242006
Jamesville1320241990
Fairview1320241991
Broad Creek1320242000
Hulls Xroads1220231997
Mooresville1120011989
Waco1020191989
Lake Surf1020241998

House Finch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.