BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

House Finch Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesGeneralists

House Finch in Kentucky has surged: up 40× on the route-weighted index since 1984.

40×Since 1984TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
42YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable House Finch Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

House Finch has surged in Kentucky: up 40× on the route-weighted index since 1984.

House Finch Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, House Finch in Kentucky is projected to rise about 48% by 2030 — from 2.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 1.6–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+48%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–4.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Finch in Kentucky is projected to rise about 48% by 2030 — from 2.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 1.6–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19812030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.01.44.7
20273.11.54.7
20283.11.54.8
20293.21.64.8
20303.21.64.8

House Finch Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording House Finch in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mcbrayer1420251986
Shiloh820251995
Eastview820251989
Bays Fork820191999
Iron Bridge719981998
Hegira720241993
Johnsonville720211991
Million 2720242006
Pleasurevill620241988
Hodgenville620011991
Sunnybrook520221992
Carter520232016
Buena Vista520171989
Morganfield520242024
Hodgenville 2520232009
Kehoe 2420242006
Merrimac420241991
Paintsville419951983
Phelps419971995
Dixon320222005
Drakesboro320032003
Lebanon Junction320252000
Cumberlnd Gp220181994
Canton220242002
Keysburg220252000

House Finch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.