BirdAnalyst
Guild · Arkansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Generalists In Arkansas

All statesArkansas

11 species in this guild. As a group they are -56%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1969.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Generalists as a group have fallen sharply in Arkansas, down 56% since 1969.

Generalists In Arkansas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Generalists in Arkansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 8.2 (95% range 4.9–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.9–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Generalists in Arkansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 8.2 (95% range 4.9–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.25.913
20278.95.612
20288.75.412
20298.45.112
20308.24.912

Member Species In Arkansas

Generalists species in Arkansas.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
House SparrowPasseridae-90%
Common GrackleIcteridae-79%
Northern MockingbirdMimidae-57%
Rock PigeonColumbidae-42%
Mourning DoveColumbidae-39%
Brown-headed CowbirdIcteridae-11%
American CrowCorvidae+20%
European StarlingSturnidae+23%
House FinchFringillidae+69%
Fish CrowCorvidae+375%
Eurasian Collared-DoveColumbidae+423%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.