BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Brown-headed Cowbird Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesGeneralists

Brown-headed Cowbird in Arkansas has edged down: down 14% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-14%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Brown-headed Cowbird Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Brown-headed Cowbird in Arkansas. See the full index history below.

Brown-headed Cowbird Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Brown-headed Cowbird in Arkansas is projected to rise about 10% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 6.5–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.5–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown-headed Cowbird in Arkansas is projected to rise about 10% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 6.5–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025116.716
2026116.716
2027116.616
2028116.516
2029116.516

Brown-headed Cowbird Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Brown-headed Cowbird in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
South Bend4520231967
Saffell4120191967
Avoca3120241967
Coal Hill2920231967
Centerton2920242010
Wilson2920241993
Maynard2820241967
Crowley'S Ridge2820242011
Hughes2620231967
Compton1820221967
Lockesburg1820192010
Dell1620242010
Stark1520241967
Harrisburg1420191967
Russell1420212010
Hope1320241967
Zion1320241967
Farwell1320182010
Ravenden Springs1320152010
Marshall1220212011
Havana1220212010
England1220242010
Fulton1120241967
Princeton1120141999
Kelso920162010

Brown-headed Cowbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.