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Species · Nebraska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Brown-headed Cowbird Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesGeneralists

Brown-headed Cowbird in Nebraska has edged up: up 25% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+25%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Brown-headed Cowbird Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Brown-headed Cowbird in Nebraska. See the full index history below.

Brown-headed Cowbird Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Brown-headed Cowbird in Nebraska is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 40 in 2025 to a central estimate of 34 (95% range 23–45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
23–4595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown-headed Cowbird in Nebraska is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 40 in 2025 to a central estimate of 34 (95% range 23–45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026342344
2027342345
2028342345
2029342345
2030342345

Brown-headed Cowbird Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Brown-headed Cowbird in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Surprise13820251967
Sumner13620251967
Berwyn 212220252014
Winside 210820222005
Sparta9120251967
Ponca9020252018
Kenesaw7420251967
Hampton7320252018
Berwyn7220101993
Tilden7120252019
Belvidere7020251967
Murdock6120252018
Brownlee5920251990
Crookston5820252018
Chambers5720252023
Madison5620252018
Gretna 25320252019
Petersburg5220251969
Eagle Creek5220251967
Liberty5120031967
Brady5120251980
Kennedy5020251976
Swan Lake4820251969
Hendley4820252018
Wheeler Co4820251978

Brown-headed Cowbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.