BirdAnalyst
Species · Kansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Brown-headed Cowbird Population Trend in Kansas

All statesGeneralists

Brown-headed Cowbird in Kansas has edged down: down 13% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-13%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Brown-headed Cowbird Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Brown-headed Cowbird in Kansas. See the full index history below.

Brown-headed Cowbird Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Brown-headed Cowbird in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 34 (95% range 22–46). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
22–4695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Brown-headed Cowbird in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 34 (95% range 22–46). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026352347
2027352347
2028342246
2029342246
2030342246

Brown-headed Cowbird Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Brown-headed Cowbird in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Covert19720251967
Kanopolis13320251967
Lincolnville13320242002
Beloit 210420182005
Hanover6420251969
Susank5520222000
Hays5120141967
Hollenberg5120251969
Gray5020191967
Damar5020162000
Seneca4820221967
Phillipsburg4820251967
Solomon4820251982
Chapman4519811967
Thrall4419701967
Wellington4320251968
Minneapolis4320191967
Galesburg4120251967
Logan4020251967
Ash Valley3920192000
Trading Post3720252000
Melrose3520231967
Plymell3520252000
Dalton3420251968
Grantville3420221967

Brown-headed Cowbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.