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Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Whip-poor-will Population Trend in Virginia

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Whip-poor-will in Virginia has fallen sharply: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-75%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Whip-poor-will Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Whip-poor-will has fallen sharply in Virginia: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Whip-poor-will Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Whip-poor-will in Virginia is projected to fall about 63% by 2030 — from 0.19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-63%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Whip-poor-will in Virginia is projected to fall about 63% by 2030 — from 0.19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.140.000.62
20270.120.000.60
20280.100.000.59
20290.090.000.57
20300.070.000.55

Eastern Whip-poor-will Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Eastern Whip-poor-will in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Natural Brid320251974
Waverly319871967
Truhart320231996
Jerome219971971
Glenwood220231992
New Market220231992
Big Island220241968
Church Road220191967
Big Meadows220112010
Elamsville220051993
Irisburg220221976
Potts Mtn.220091992
Star Tannery120251977
Taylorstown119841984
W Augusta120251967
Bald Knob120241996
Gr North Mtn120251993
Tryme119831975
Edinburg119831983
Great Falls119671967
Port Royal119801980
Partlow119961978
David119681968
Isom120161969
Covington120181966

Eastern Whip-poor-will Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.