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Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Whip-poor-will Population Trend in Virginia

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Whip-poor-will in Virginia has fallen sharply: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-65%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Whip-poor-will Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Whip-poor-will has fallen sharply in Virginia: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Whip-poor-will Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Whip-poor-will in Virginia is projected to fall about 56% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-56%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Whip-poor-will in Virginia is projected to fall about 56% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.150.000.64
20260.140.000.62
20270.120.000.60
20280.100.000.59
20290.080.000.57

Eastern Whip-poor-will Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Eastern Whip-poor-will in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Natural Brid320241974
Waverly319871967
Surry320081977
Truhart320231996
W Augusta220191967
Jerome219971971
Glenwood220231992
New Market220231992
Amherst220241969
Big Island220241968
Church Road220191967
Big Meadows220112010
Elamsville220051993
Irisburg220221976
Potts Mtn.220091992
Star Tannery120241977
Taylorstown119841984
Bald Knob120241996
Gr North Mtn120241993
Tryme119831975
Edinburg119831983
Great Falls119671967
Port Royal119801980
Partlow119961978
David119681968

Eastern Whip-poor-will Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.