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Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Whip-poor-will Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Whip-poor-will in North Carolina has fallen sharply: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-56%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Whip-poor-will Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Whip-poor-will has fallen sharply in North Carolina: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Whip-poor-will Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Whip-poor-will in North Carolina is projected to fall about 36% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.58). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-36%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Whip-poor-will in North Carolina is projected to fall about 36% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.58). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.140.000.63
20260.130.000.61
20270.120.000.60
20280.100.000.59
20290.090.000.58

Eastern Whip-poor-will Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Eastern Whip-poor-will in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Table Rock720221996
Washington320242001
Uwharrie Nf320001995
Broad Creek220131993
Spring Hope220242002
Cayton220222018
Biscoe220091990
Todd220001999
Bullock220221997
Reelsboro220182001
Jamesville220241983
Merrimon120162015
Wards Corner120051995
Hallsboro119921992
Raeford120241991
Sheep Ridge120181994
Arapahoe119941993
Beargrass119771977
Speed119901986
Kinston120011968
Jordan120161966
Saxapahaw119871969
Climax120051966
Mooresville119881968
Oakboro120111978

Eastern Whip-poor-will Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.