BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Whip-poor-will Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Whip-poor-will in Arkansas has edged up: up 14% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+14%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Whip-poor-will Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Whip-poor-will in Arkansas. See the full index history below.

Eastern Whip-poor-will Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Whip-poor-will in Arkansas is projected to rise about 37% by 2029 — from 0.32 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.44 (95% range 0.00–0.99). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±121%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+37%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.44Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±121%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Whip-poor-will in Arkansas is projected to rise about 37% by 2029 — from 0.32 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.44 (95% range 0.00–0.99). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±121%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.440.001.00
20260.440.001.00
20270.440.000.99
20280.440.000.99
20290.440.000.99

Eastern Whip-poor-will Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Eastern Whip-poor-will in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Blakely419991972
Ozark Nf320241991
Zion320241970
Maynard220111968
Marshall220132013
Havana220162010
Dry Fork 2220242024
Princeton220211998
Ramsey119951990
Stamps120151992
Magazine Mtn120191993
Ashdown120082008
Boston Mtn.120231994
Crows119891972
Waldron120001998
Saffell120051968
Rupert120211968
Stark119981967
Lurton120231970
Fulton120161968
Compton120221968
Ravenden Springs120102010
Nance120241993
Dry Fork120232000

Eastern Whip-poor-will Population Trend in Other States

alabamaconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.