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Species · Tennessee · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Whip-poor-will Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Whip-poor-will in Tennessee has collapsed: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-77%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Whip-poor-will Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Whip-poor-will has collapsed in Tennessee: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Whip-poor-will Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Whip-poor-will in Tennessee is projected to rise about 62% by 2030 — from 0.10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+62%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.16Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Whip-poor-will in Tennessee is projected to rise about 62% by 2030 — from 0.10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.200.000.49
20270.190.000.48
20280.180.000.47
20290.170.000.46
20300.160.000.45

Eastern Whip-poor-will Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Eastern Whip-poor-will in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sweetlips420191972
Belotes Bend319921992
Mcfarland319931967
Cornpone320231997
Indian Mound 2320052004
Indian Mound219981966
Oliver Spgs219941968
Walland219811966
Fish Springs220231971
Willis Sprng220221995
Pawpaw120121970
Moscow120111974
Brownsville119971997
Tibbs120051991
Whiteville120171968
Big Sandy120241966
Mansfield120241966
Silerton120241966
Trenton120192019
Humboldt120091981
Pond Creek120141967
Collinwood120211966
Wrigley120031966
Campbellsville119761966
Lewis Forest120151966

Eastern Whip-poor-will Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.