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Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Whip-poor-will Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Whip-poor-will in Kentucky has collapsed: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-84%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Whip-poor-will Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Whip-poor-will has collapsed in Kentucky: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Whip-poor-will Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Whip-poor-will in Kentucky is projected to fall about 100% by 2028 — from 0.10 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±173.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±173.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Whip-poor-will in Kentucky is projected to fall about 100% by 2028 — from 0.10 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±173.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.000.000.51
20250.000.000.51
20260.000.000.51
20270.000.000.51
20280.000.000.51

Eastern Whip-poor-will Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Eastern Whip-poor-will in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Beattyville1419781967
Keysburg319851971
Carter320191978
Hudson319931966
Boxville319831970
Mammoth Cave320091996
Shiloh220131968
Canton220231968
Sulphur Lick219861968
Bardwell220001971
Mcbrayer219921992
Johnsonville220081968
Demunbruns219961967
Gatewood220021968
Drakesboro219921971
Kehoe219831973
Paintsville219951979
Staffordsvil219971996
Cumberlnd Gp120151980
Lovelacevile119931970
Cedar Grove119961969
Iron Bridge119821982
Apex120192005
Sunnybrook119691968
Monticello119681968

Eastern Whip-poor-will Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.