BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Whip-poor-will Population Trend in Missouri

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Whip-poor-will in Missouri has fallen sharply: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-61%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Whip-poor-will Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Whip-poor-will has fallen sharply in Missouri: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Eastern Whip-poor-will Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Whip-poor-will in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.32 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.32Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±58.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Whip-poor-will in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.32 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.410.001.2
20260.390.001.2
20270.370.001.2
20280.340.001.2
20290.320.001.1

Eastern Whip-poor-will Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Eastern Whip-poor-will in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Akers320241967
Rensselaer319981971
Viburnum320162016
Cascade220241969
Clementine220021974
Filley220191975
Hayden220091975
Cole Camp219851973
Warren219841969
Madison220051974
Doe Run220242015
Mincy220242013
Centerville220241995
New Hampton220242015
Clementine 2220062005
Eugene220192014
Sedalia220001991
Deventer119841981
Pulaski119951977
Peace Valley120241975
Sweden120241976
Cassville119821974
Pineville119911974
Cameron120001988
Ironton119801972

Eastern Whip-poor-will Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.