BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Whip-poor-will Population Trend in Michigan

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Whip-poor-will in Michigan has surged: up 130% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+130%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Whip-poor-will Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Whip-poor-will has surged in Michigan: up 130% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Eastern Whip-poor-will Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Whip-poor-will in Michigan is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-35%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Whip-poor-will in Michigan is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.120.000.30
20260.120.000.30
20270.120.000.30
20280.110.000.30
20290.110.000.29

Eastern Whip-poor-will Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Eastern Whip-poor-will in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Allegan Wma420151993
Raco320241971
Betchler Lks220241992
Cunard220211973
Isabella219981969
Sidnaw220231993
Big Blue Lk219951979
Bravo220051978
Red Oak220111975
Cathro219801975
Juniata219701970
Harrietta120241991
Marenisco120002000
Chippewa Lk.119971995
Ned Lake120222017
Pine River119931992
Crystal Fls120142014
Gibbs City120242016
Hiawatha Nf120232023
Brocky Lake120232023
Wilson120021980
Creighton120121980
Scottville119831981
Almena119931993
Cluster Lakes120072007

Eastern Whip-poor-will Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.