BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Whip-poor-will Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Whip-poor-will in New Jersey has collapsed: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-77%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Whip-poor-will Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Whip-poor-will has collapsed in New Jersey: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Whip-poor-will Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Whip-poor-will in New Jersey is projected to fall about 93% by 2029 — from 0.24 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.74). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-93%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±69.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Whip-poor-will in New Jersey is projected to fall about 93% by 2029 — from 0.24 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.74). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.070.000.79
20260.050.000.78
20270.040.000.77
20280.030.000.76
20290.020.000.74

Eastern Whip-poor-will Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Eastern Whip-poor-will in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Spraguetown 3520242023
Bennett Mill420001966
Spraguetown319841977
Winslow220071989
Pomona220081978
Mt Misery119891976
Six Points119901979
Toms River119811967
Albion120071968
Ancora119741968
Cape May Ch120061992
Holmansville120041971
New Bedford119801969
High Point120172004
Friendship120231977

Eastern Whip-poor-will Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.