BirdAnalyst
Guild · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Generalists In North Carolina

All statesNorth Carolina

56 species in this guild. As a group they are -47%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Generalists as a group have declined in North Carolina, down 47% since 1968.

Generalists In North Carolina Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Generalists in North Carolina is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 6.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.1 (95% range 3.0–7.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.0–7.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Generalists in North Carolina is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 6.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.1 (95% range 3.0–7.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.63.57.6
20265.53.47.5
20275.33.37.4
20285.23.27.3
20295.13.07.2

Member Species In North Carolina

Generalists species in North Carolina.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Loggerhead ShrikeLaniidae-93%
House SparrowPasseridae-91%
Rose-breasted GrosbeakCardinalidae-83%
Black-billed CuckooCuculidae-82%
American KestrelFalconidae-82%
Sharp-shinned HawkAccipitridae-79%
Painted BuntingCardinalidae-78%
Eastern Screech-OwlStrigidae-77%
Field SparrowPasserellidae-75%
Common GrackleIcteridae-69%
Blue JayCorvidae-58%
Eastern TowheePasserellidae-55%
European StarlingSturnidae-52%
Belted KingfisherAlcedinidae-49%
Ruffed GrousePhasianidae-41%
Northern MockingbirdMimidae-40%
Gray CatbirdMimidae-36%
Red-winged BlackbirdIcteridae-31%
Orchard OrioleIcteridae-31%
Brown ThrasherMimidae-25%
Mourning DoveColumbidae-23%
AnhingaAnhingidae-23%
Indigo BuntingCardinalidae-23%
Yellow-billed CuckooCuculidae-20%
Yellow-breasted ChatIcteriidae-20%
Northern CardinalCardinalidae-16%
Broad-winged HawkAccipitridae-13%
Bachman's SparrowPasserellidae-7%
OspreyPandionidae-4%
Baltimore OrioleIcteridae-2%
Rock PigeonColumbidae+5%
Summer TanagerCardinalidae+21%
Boat-tailed GrackleIcteridae+21%
Great Horned OwlStrigidae+36%
Chipping SparrowPasserellidae+48%
Blue GrosbeakCardinalidae+50%
Ruby-throated HummingbirdTrochilidae+52%
Song SparrowPasserellidae+54%
American CrowCorvidae+55%
Scarlet TanagerCardinalidae+96%
Cooper's HawkAccipitridae+102%
Common RavenCorvidae+148%
Red-tailed HawkAccipitridae+164%
Brown-headed CowbirdIcteridae+188%
Barred OwlStrigidae+225%
Fish CrowCorvidae+244%
American GoldfinchFringillidae+276%
Eurasian Collared-DoveColumbidae+284%
Cedar WaxwingBombycillidae+310%
Black VultureCathartidae+610%
Bald EagleAccipitridae+730%
Turkey VultureCathartidae+905%
Mississippi KiteAccipitridae11×
Red-shouldered HawkAccipitridae17×
Wild TurkeyPhasianidae21×
House FinchFringillidae49×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.