BirdAnalyst
Guild · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Generalists In Kentucky

All statesKentucky

49 species in this guild. As a group they are -52%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Generalists as a group have fallen sharply in Kentucky, down 52% since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Generalists in Kentucky is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 8.2 (95% range 6.1–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.1–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Generalists in Kentucky is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 8.2 (95% range 6.1–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.96.811
20268.76.611
20278.66.411
20288.46.211
20298.26.110

Member Species In Kentucky

Generalists species in Kentucky.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Loggerhead ShrikeLaniidae-96%
House SparrowPasseridae-88%
Common GrackleIcteridae-82%
Gray CatbirdMimidae-74%
Field SparrowPasserellidae-74%
Orchard OrioleIcteridae-64%
OspreyPandionidae-61%
Eastern TowheePasserellidae-60%
Yellow-breasted ChatIcteriidae-56%
Rock PigeonColumbidae-52%
Yellow-billed CuckooCuculidae-50%
Blue JayCorvidae-47%
Northern MockingbirdMimidae-42%
American GoldfinchFringillidae-39%
Indigo BuntingCardinalidae-38%
Brown-headed CowbirdIcteridae-38%
Brown ThrasherMimidae-30%
Great Horned OwlStrigidae-26%
European StarlingSturnidae-20%
Red-winged BlackbirdIcteridae-17%
American CrowCorvidae-16%
Northern CardinalCardinalidae-14%
Summer TanagerCardinalidae-12%
Black-billed CuckooCuculidae-8%
Sharp-shinned HawkAccipitridae-1%
Eastern Screech-OwlStrigidae+0%
Chipping SparrowPasserellidae+2%
Belted KingfisherAlcedinidae+12%
Mourning DoveColumbidae+19%
Broad-winged HawkAccipitridae+19%
Ruby-throated HummingbirdTrochilidae+27%
Scarlet TanagerCardinalidae+34%
American KestrelFalconidae+40%
Song SparrowPasserellidae+45%
Mississippi KiteAccipitridae+85%
Barred OwlStrigidae+87%
Baltimore OrioleIcteridae+101%
Bald EagleAccipitridae+133%
Cooper's HawkAccipitridae+192%
Fish CrowCorvidae+203%
Turkey VultureCathartidae+293%
Red-tailed HawkAccipitridae+361%
Black VultureCathartidae+692%
Cedar WaxwingBombycillidae+745%
Red-shouldered HawkAccipitridae+867%
Wild TurkeyPhasianidae+908%
Eurasian Collared-DoveColumbidae14×
Blue GrosbeakCardinalidae28×
House FinchFringillidae40×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.