BirdAnalyst
Guild · Kansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Generalists In Kansas

All statesKansas

13 species in this guild. As a group they are -49%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1969.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Generalists as a group have declined in Kansas, down 49% since 1969.

Generalists In Kansas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Generalists in Kansas is projected to fall about 41% by 2030 — from 18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 4.7–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-41%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.7–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Generalists in Kansas is projected to fall about 41% by 2030 — from 18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 4.7–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026136.618
2027126.118
2028125.617
2029115.217
2030114.717

Member Species In Kansas

Generalists species in Kansas.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Black-billed MagpieCorvidae-97%
House SparrowPasseridae-81%
Common GrackleIcteridae-60%
Northern MockingbirdMimidae-41%
Brown-headed CowbirdIcteridae-13%
Mourning DoveColumbidae-12%
European StarlingSturnidae+5%
Rock PigeonColumbidae+42%
American CrowCorvidae+81%
White-winged DoveColumbidae+339%
Fish CrowCorvidae+440%
House FinchFringillidae+485%
Eurasian Collared-DoveColumbidae80×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.