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Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-billed Magpie Population Trend in Kansas

All statesGeneralists

Black-billed Magpie in Kansas has collapsed: down 97% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-97%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-billed Magpie Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-billed Magpie has collapsed in Kansas: down 97% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Black-billed Magpie Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Black-billed Magpie in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.86). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±552.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±552.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-billed Magpie in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.86). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±552.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.000.000.86
20230.000.000.86
20240.000.000.86
20250.000.000.86
20260.000.000.86

Black-billed Magpie Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Black-billed Magpie in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Covert2120031969
Jewell520021967
Jewell 2420122007
Ashland419761976
Hanover420091992
Beloit420002000
Albert320001989
Minneapolis320081970
Gove320021970
Ash Valley320032000
Rexford320002000
St John220061971
Leoville220171967
Hollenberg220031992
Damar220032000
Coldwater119871975
Lakin119951967
Buckeye120031999
Kanopolis120011972
Gray120061968
Hays119931973
Wallace120001992
Phillipsburg120081967
Logan120031967
Missler119831975

Black-billed Magpie Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.