BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-billed Magpie Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesGeneralists

Black-billed Magpie in Nebraska has fallen sharply: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-70%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-billed Magpie Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-billed Magpie has fallen sharply in Nebraska: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Black-billed Magpie Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Black-billed Magpie in Nebraska is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.75 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.77). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±194.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±194.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-billed Magpie in Nebraska is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.75 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.77). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±194.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.77
20260.000.000.77
20270.000.000.77
20280.000.000.77
20290.000.000.77

Black-billed Magpie Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Black-billed Magpie in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pine Ridge1420241999
Crawford1420241980
Kimball1119781975
Dalton820241968
Brownson320212021
Bartley219941967
Stratton219841975
Bartlett219761967
Paxton220081967
Thurston220102001
Midway219951967
Johnstown220011967
Benkelman220001997
Wheeler Co219831979
Berwyn219971994
Belvidere120092005
Seward119731973
Kenesaw119921980
Kearney120011968
Sumner119951967
Holbrook120221969
Oglala Nat. Grass.120081999
Petersburg120021969
Almeria120111969
Oconto119811971

Black-billed Magpie Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahokansasminnesotamontananevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotautahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.