BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-billed Magpie Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGeneralists

Black-billed Magpie in Minnesota has surged: up 135% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

+135%Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-billed Magpie Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-billed Magpie has surged in Minnesota: up 134% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

Black-billed Magpie Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Black-billed Magpie in Minnesota is projected to rise about 80% by 2029 — from 0.53 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.95 (95% range 0.46–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+80%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.95Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.46–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±68.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-billed Magpie in Minnesota is projected to rise about 80% by 2029 — from 0.53 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.95 (95% range 0.46–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19782029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.890.401.4
20260.900.421.4
20270.920.431.4
20280.930.451.4
20290.950.461.4

Black-billed Magpie Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Black-billed Magpie in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Erie2520171979
Bagley1320061996
Wylie1020241980
Lake Bronson1020111978
Debs620242010
Nebish520232011
Oklee520211979
Grygla520171978
Badger520181978
Lude420231978
Nett Lake420242013
Evergreen320222017
Little Fork320242007
Pine River220242021
Waskish220211982
Blackduck220212017
Backus120242000
Floodwood120232002
Cohasset120221980
Beltrami120242010
Mcgregor120232013
Warroad120241993
Greenbush120241994

Black-billed Magpie Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.