BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-billed Magpie Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGeneralists

Black-billed Magpie in Minnesota has surged: up 117% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

+117%Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-billed Magpie Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-billed Magpie has surged in Minnesota: up 117% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

Black-billed Magpie Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Black-billed Magpie in Minnesota is projected to rise about 163% by 2030 — from 0.34 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.91 (95% range 0.41–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±96.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+163%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.91Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.41–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±96.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-billed Magpie in Minnesota is projected to rise about 163% by 2030 — from 0.34 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.91 (95% range 0.41–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±96.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19782030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.850.351.4
20270.870.361.4
20280.880.381.4
20290.900.391.4
20300.910.411.4

Black-billed Magpie Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Black-billed Magpie in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Erie2520171979
Bagley1320061996
Wylie1020241980
Lake Bronson1020111978
Debs720252010
Oklee520211979
Lude520251978
Grygla520171978
Badger520181978
Warroad520251993
Nett Lake420242013
Evergreen320222017
Little Fork320242007
Pine River220242021
Waskish220211982
Blackduck220212017
Nebish120252011
Backus120252000
Floodwood120232002
Cohasset120221980
Beltrami120242010
Mcgregor120232013
Greenbush120241994

Black-billed Magpie Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.