BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Swallow-tailed Kite

AccipitridaeBirds of preyElanoides forficatus

Swallow-tailed Kite has surged: up 359% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+359%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
198RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Swallow-tailed Kite

The Swallow-tailed Kite (Elanoides forficatus) is a North American member of the Hawks, Eagles & Kites (Accipitridae). In this analysis it is grouped with the birds of prey.

Size
17.5–39.5 in long (45–100 cm) — a medium to large raptor (typical for the family)
Habitat
Open country, woodlands, cliffs and wetlands, hunting from the air or a high perch.
Diet
Live prey — small mammals, birds, reptiles, fish and large insects (carrion for vultures).
Range
Recorded on 198 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 8 states, most concentrated in the Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Family
Accipitridae · Birds of prey

Notable Swallow-tailed Kite TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Swallow-tailed Kite. See the full index history below.

Swallow-tailed Kite Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Swallow-tailed Kite is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.06 (95% range 0.04–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.0795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swallow-tailed Kite is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.06 (95% range 0.04–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.050.040.07
20260.060.040.07
20270.060.040.07
20280.060.040.07
20290.060.040.07

Where the Swallow-tailed Kite Is Detected

BBS routes recording Swallow-tailed Kite, sized by most recent count.

Swallow-tailed Kite Population Trend by State

Swallow-tailed Kite population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alabama+75%198822
Florida+455%196898
Georgia+506%198732
Louisiana-30%199219
Mississippi-33%199810
North Carolinainsufficient datan/a1
South Carolina+72%199610
Texasinsufficient datan/a6

Swallow-tailed Kite Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Swallow-tailed Kite population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas-49%20018
Mississippi Alluvial Valley-47%19928
Southeastern Coastal Plain+763%1977111
Peninsular Florida+307%196864

Swallow-tailed Kite Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 359% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.