BirdAnalyst
Species · Louisiana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Swallow-tailed Kite Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesBirds of prey

Swallow-tailed Kite in Louisiana has fallen sharply: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

-53%Since 1992TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Swallow-tailed Kite Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Swallow-tailed Kite has fallen sharply in Louisiana: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

Swallow-tailed Kite Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Swallow-tailed Kite in Louisiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±283.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.15Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±283.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swallow-tailed Kite in Louisiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±283.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19902030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.150.000.36
20270.150.000.36
20280.150.000.36
20290.150.000.36
20300.150.000.36

Swallow-tailed Kite Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Swallow-tailed Kite in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Vinton 2420172011
Port Allen320192001
Kraemer320221998
Roseland220102009
Fort Jessup220162007
De Ridder220111991
Ramah220231994
Vinton220092009
Pearl River220231993
Natchez220242023
River Road120252013
Atchafalaya120181990
Franklinton120152009
Grayson120142014
Kaplan120152015
Morgan City120222011
De Quincy120212019
Berwick120182006
Burr Ferry120012001

Swallow-tailed Kite Population Trend in Other States

alabamafloridageorgiamississippinorth-carolinasouth-carolinatexas

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.