BirdAnalyst
Species · Alabama · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Swallow-tailed Kite Population Trend in Alabama

All statesBirds of prey

Swallow-tailed Kite in Alabama has increased: up 35% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

+35%Since 1988TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
27YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Swallow-tailed Kite Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Swallow-tailed Kite in Alabama. See the full index history below.

Swallow-tailed Kite Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Swallow-tailed Kite in Alabama is projected to rise about 17% by 2030 — from 0.06 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+17%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swallow-tailed Kite in Alabama is projected to rise about 17% by 2030 — from 0.06 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.070.000.14
20270.070.000.14
20280.070.000.14
20290.070.000.15
20300.070.000.15

Swallow-tailed Kite Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Swallow-tailed Kite in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gainestown Ferry620121999
Riderwood420192019
Madrid420232013
Grove Hill320142014
Chacaloochee Bay320192009
Warrior Std220212021
Fairview220212002
Bay Minette220132013
Alabama Pt 2120182018
Elberta119981998
Harrell120182018
Wallsboro119981998
Brundidge120192019
Brantley120212021
South120252002
Mclellan120112010
Latham119781972
Castleberry120252025
Millry120182018
Escatawpa119881988
Mt. Gilead120252009
Gastonburg120192019
Claiborne120132004

Swallow-tailed Kite Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.