BirdAnalyst
Species · Alabama · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Swallow-tailed Kite Population Trend in Alabama

All statesGeneralists

Swallow-tailed Kite in Alabama has surged: up 75% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

+75%Since 1988TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
26YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Swallow-tailed Kite Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Swallow-tailed Kite has surged in Alabama: up 75% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

Swallow-tailed Kite Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Swallow-tailed Kite in Alabama is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swallow-tailed Kite in Alabama is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.070.000.15
20250.070.000.15
20260.070.000.15
20270.070.000.15
20280.070.000.15

Swallow-tailed Kite Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Swallow-tailed Kite in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gainestown Ferry620121999
Riderwood420192019
Madrid420232013
Grove Hill320142014
Chacaloochee Bay320192009
Warrior Std220212021
Fairview220212002
Bay Minette220132013
Alabama Pt 2120182018
Elberta119981998
Harrell120182018
Wallsboro119981998
Brundidge120192019
Brantley120212021
South120102002
Mclellan120112010
Latham119781972
Millry120182018
Escatawpa119881988
Mt. Gilead120232009
Gastonburg120192019
Claiborne120132004

Swallow-tailed Kite Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.