BirdAnalyst
Species · Georgia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Swallow-tailed Kite Population Trend in Georgia

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Swallow-tailed Kite in Georgia has surged: up 582% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

+582%Since 1987TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Swallow-tailed Kite Trends in GeorgiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Swallow-tailed Kite in Georgia. See the full index history below.

Swallow-tailed Kite Population Forecast in Georgia

If the recent trend holds, Swallow-tailed Kite in Georgia is projected to fall about 40% by 2030 — from 0.46 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.27 (95% range 0.10–0.44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-40%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.27Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.10–0.4495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swallow-tailed Kite in Georgia is projected to fall about 40% by 2030 — from 0.46 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.27 (95% range 0.10–0.44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.250.080.42
20270.250.090.42
20280.260.090.43
20290.270.100.43
20300.270.100.44

Swallow-tailed Kite Survey Routes in Georgia

Routes recording Swallow-tailed Kite in Georgia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Harrietts Bl720251988
Pitts620252025
Owensboro520252024
Headlight420232012
Council320242012
Tarver220252010
Big Oak220242008
Dover220251990
Ousley220222018
Okefenokee119871986
Darien120192017
Stockton120252021
Baxley120191989
Fowlstown120132009
Wrightsville120252022
Hawkinsville120242024
Waycross119721972
Nashville120222022
Riceboro120142006
Jacksonboro120251989
Woodbine120232013
Colonels Island120152007
Glenmore120252014
Wadley120252025
Thornton Road120242024

Swallow-tailed Kite Population Trend in Other States

alabamafloridalouisianamississippinorth-carolinasouth-carolinatexas

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.