BirdAnalyst
Species · Georgia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Swallow-tailed Kite Population Trend in Georgia

All statesGeneralists

Swallow-tailed Kite in Georgia has surged: up 506% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

+506%Since 1987TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
31YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Swallow-tailed Kite Trends in GeorgiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Swallow-tailed Kite has surged in Georgia: up 506% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

Swallow-tailed Kite Population Forecast in Georgia

If the recent trend holds, Swallow-tailed Kite in Georgia is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 0.29 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.09–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.24Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.09–0.3995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swallow-tailed Kite in Georgia is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 0.29 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.09–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.220.070.37
20260.220.070.37
20270.230.080.38
20280.230.080.38
20290.240.090.39

Swallow-tailed Kite Survey Routes in Georgia

Routes recording Swallow-tailed Kite in Georgia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Headlight420232012
Council320242012
Shiloh320242017
Stockton220232021
Tarver220242010
Big Oak220242008
Dover220241990
Ousley220222018
Boston220222005
Harrietts Bl120241988
Okefenokee119871986
Darien120192017
Baxley120191989
Fowlstown120132009
Wrightsville120222022
Hawkinsville120242024
Waycross119721972
Nashville120222022
Riceboro120142006
Jacksonboro120191989
Woodbine120232013
Colonels Island120152007
Glenmore120242014
Thornton Road120242024
Union120222022

Swallow-tailed Kite Population Trend in Other States

alabamafloridalouisianamississippinorth-carolinasouth-carolinatexas

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.