BirdAnalyst
Species · South Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Swallow-tailed Kite Population Trend in South Carolina

All statesGeneralists

Swallow-tailed Kite in South Carolina has risen sharply: up 72% on the route-weighted index since 1996.

+72%Since 1996TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
21YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Swallow-tailed Kite Trends in South CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Swallow-tailed Kite has risen sharply in South Carolina: up 72% on the route-weighted index since 1996.

Swallow-tailed Kite Population Forecast in South Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Swallow-tailed Kite in South Carolina is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–0.43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swallow-tailed Kite in South Carolina is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–0.43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19882029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.160.000.43
20260.160.000.43
20270.160.000.43
20280.160.000.43
20290.160.000.43

Swallow-tailed Kite Survey Routes in South Carolina

Routes recording Swallow-tailed Kite in South Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hardeeville220231997
Dale220222016
Jamestown120011996
Rome120241989
Holly Hill120242021
Coward120232023
Adams Run120241988
Wagener120232023
Walterboro120172003
Red Bluff120212021

Swallow-tailed Kite Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.