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Species · Florida · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Swallow-tailed Kite Population Trend in Florida

All statesBirds of prey

Swallow-tailed Kite in Florida has surged: up 426% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+426%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
98Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Swallow-tailed Kite Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Swallow-tailed Kite has surged in Florida: up 426% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Swallow-tailed Kite Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Swallow-tailed Kite in Florida is projected to fall about 10% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 1.2–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swallow-tailed Kite in Florida is projected to fall about 10% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 1.2–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.51.12.0
20271.61.12.0
20281.61.22.0
20291.61.22.1
20301.71.22.1

Swallow-tailed Kite Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Swallow-tailed Kite in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kenansville1420251967
Gardner919991987
Devils Gardn920251987
Doctors Inlet 2820162008
Apalachicola720251990
Salvista619771969
Bloxham620252002
Palmdale620231987
Babcock Rnch619901988
Dupuis W.E.A520251999
San Antonio420251987
Sunniland Gr420211966
Alligator Pt420231990
Ft Mccoy420251992
Weaver Stn420191990
Mt. Olive420252002
Sanderson 2420222022
Croom420252010
Blountstown320251976
Miccosukee320252003
Steinhatchee320251976
Romeo320231976
Myakka Head320111987
Belmore320241969
Arbuckle320211987

Swallow-tailed Kite Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.