Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Swallow-tailed Kite Population Trend in Florida
Swallow-tailed Kite in Florida has surged: up 455% on the route-weighted index since 1968.
+455%Since 1968
98Routes In State
57Years
Notable Swallow-tailed Kite Trends in Florida
long arc increasecomputed index
Swallow-tailed Kite has surged in Florida: up 455% on the route-weighted index since 1968.
Swallow-tailed Kite Population Forecast in Florida
If the recent trend holds, Swallow-tailed Kite in Florida is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 1.2–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
+20%Change by 2029
1.6Projected 2029 index
1.2–2.095% range
±20.7%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| 2026 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 2.0 |
| 2027 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 2.0 |
| 2028 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 2.0 |
| 2029 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 2.0 |
Swallow-tailed Kite Survey Routes in Florida
| Gardner | 9 | 1999 | 1987 |
| Devils Gardn | 9 | 2023 | 1987 |
| Doctors Inlet 2 | 8 | 2016 | 2008 |
| Ridge Harbor | 7 | 2024 | 2004 |
| Dupuis W.E.A | 7 | 2024 | 1999 |
| Salvista | 6 | 1977 | 1969 |
| Palmdale | 6 | 2023 | 1987 |
| Apalachicola | 6 | 2024 | 1990 |
| Babcock Rnch | 6 | 1990 | 1988 |
| Kenansville | 5 | 2024 | 1967 |
| San Antonio | 4 | 2024 | 1987 |
| Sunniland Gr | 4 | 2021 | 1966 |
| Alligator Pt | 4 | 2023 | 1990 |
| Homestead | 4 | 2015 | 1999 |
| Weaver Stn | 4 | 2019 | 1990 |
| Mabel 2 | 4 | 2018 | 2013 |
| Sanderson 2 | 4 | 2022 | 2022 |
| Croom | 4 | 2024 | 2010 |
| Blountstown | 3 | 2019 | 1976 |
| Steinhatchee | 3 | 2023 | 1976 |
| Romeo | 3 | 2023 | 1976 |
| Myakka Head | 3 | 2011 | 1987 |
| St Augustine | 3 | 2024 | 1977 |
| Belmore | 3 | 2024 | 1969 |
| Pinecrest | 3 | 2024 | 1966 |
Swallow-tailed Kite Population Trend in Other States
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.