BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Swallow-tailed Kite Population Trend in Florida

All statesGeneralists

Swallow-tailed Kite in Florida has surged: up 455% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+455%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
98Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Swallow-tailed Kite Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Swallow-tailed Kite has surged in Florida: up 455% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Swallow-tailed Kite Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Swallow-tailed Kite in Florida is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 1.2–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swallow-tailed Kite in Florida is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 1.2–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.51.11.9
20261.51.12.0
20271.51.12.0
20281.61.12.0
20291.61.22.0

Swallow-tailed Kite Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Swallow-tailed Kite in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gardner919991987
Devils Gardn920231987
Doctors Inlet 2820162008
Ridge Harbor720242004
Dupuis W.E.A720241999
Salvista619771969
Palmdale620231987
Apalachicola620241990
Babcock Rnch619901988
Kenansville520241967
San Antonio420241987
Sunniland Gr420211966
Alligator Pt420231990
Homestead420151999
Weaver Stn420191990
Mabel 2420182013
Sanderson 2420222022
Croom420242010
Blountstown320191976
Steinhatchee320231976
Romeo320231976
Myakka Head320111987
St Augustine320241977
Belmore320241969
Pinecrest320241966

Swallow-tailed Kite Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.