BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Swallow-tailed Kite In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyGeneralists

Swallow-tailed Kite in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has declined: down 47% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

-47%Since 1992TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
33YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Swallow-tailed Kite in Mississippi Alluvial Valley. See the full index history below.

Swallow-tailed Kite In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Swallow-tailed Kite in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 208% by 2028 — from 0.06 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±251.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+208%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±251.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swallow-tailed Kite in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 208% by 2028 — from 0.06 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±251.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19902028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.180.000.48
20250.180.000.48
20260.180.000.48
20270.180.000.48
20280.180.000.48

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Swallow-tailed Kite in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KraemerLOUISIANA32022
Port AllenLOUISIANA32019
RoselandLOUISIANA22010
RamahLOUISIANA22023
BerwickLOUISIANA12018
Morgan CityLOUISIANA12022
River RoadLOUISIANA12013
AtchafalayaLOUISIANA12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.