BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Swallow-tailed Kite In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaGeneralists

Swallow-tailed Kite in Peninsular Florida has surged: up 307% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+307%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Swallow-tailed Kite has surged in Peninsular Florida: up 307% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Swallow-tailed Kite In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Swallow-tailed Kite in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.4–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+27%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–2.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swallow-tailed Kite in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.4–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.91.32.5
20261.91.32.6
20272.01.42.6
20282.01.42.6
20292.01.42.7

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Swallow-tailed Kite in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GardnerFLORIDA91999
Devils GardnFLORIDA92023
Ridge HarborFLORIDA72024
Dupuis W.E.AFLORIDA72024
SalvistaFLORIDA61977
PalmdaleFLORIDA62023
Babcock RnchFLORIDA61990
KenansvilleFLORIDA52024
San AntonioFLORIDA42024
Sunniland GrFLORIDA42021
HomesteadFLORIDA42015
Weaver StnFLORIDA42019
Mabel 2FLORIDA42018
CroomFLORIDA42024
RomeoFLORIDA32023
Myakka HeadFLORIDA32011
St AugustineFLORIDA32024
BelmoreFLORIDA32024
PinecrestFLORIDA32024
NobletonFLORIDA32024
ArbuckleFLORIDA32021
Island GroveFLORIDA32024
FlamingoFLORIDA32024
Holey LandFLORIDA32023
Polk CityFLORIDA22022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.