BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Swallow-tailed Kite In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaBirds of prey

Swallow-tailed Kite in Peninsular Florida has surged: up 249% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+249%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Swallow-tailed Kite has surged in Peninsular Florida: up 249% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Swallow-tailed Kite In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Swallow-tailed Kite in Peninsular Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.1 (95% range 1.5–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–2.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swallow-tailed Kite in Peninsular Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.1 (95% range 1.5–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.91.32.6
20272.01.42.6
20282.01.42.6
20292.01.42.7
20302.11.52.7

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Swallow-tailed Kite in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KenansvilleFLORIDA142025
GardnerFLORIDA91999
Devils GardnFLORIDA92025
SalvistaFLORIDA61977
PalmdaleFLORIDA62023
Babcock RnchFLORIDA61990
Dupuis W.E.AFLORIDA52025
San AntonioFLORIDA42025
Sunniland GrFLORIDA42021
Ft MccoyFLORIDA42025
Weaver StnFLORIDA42019
Mt. OliveFLORIDA42025
CroomFLORIDA42025
RomeoFLORIDA32023
Myakka HeadFLORIDA32011
BelmoreFLORIDA32024
ArbuckleFLORIDA32021
Mabel 2FLORIDA32025
ChassahowitzFLORIDA32025
Polk CityFLORIDA22022
Winter GardnFLORIDA22019
HomesteadFLORIDA22025
AripekaFLORIDA22025
Citrus ParkFLORIDA22024
Myakka Head 2FLORIDA22021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.