BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Swallow-tailed Kite In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainGeneralists

Swallow-tailed Kite in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 763% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

+763%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
111Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Swallow-tailed Kite has surged in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 763% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Swallow-tailed Kite in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.25 (95% range 0.16–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.25Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.16–0.3395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.230.140.31
20260.230.150.31
20270.240.150.32
20280.240.160.33
20290.250.160.33

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Swallow-tailed Kite in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Doctors Inlet 2FLORIDA82016
Gainestown FerryALABAMA62012
ApalachicolaFLORIDA62024
RiderwoodALABAMA42019
MadridALABAMA42023
Alligator PtFLORIDA42023
Sanderson 2FLORIDA42022
HeadlightGEORGIA42023
Grove HillALABAMA32014
Chacaloochee BayALABAMA32019
BlountstownFLORIDA32019
SteinhatcheeFLORIDA32023
CouncilGEORGIA32024
ShilohGEORGIA32024
SupplyNORTH-CAROLINA32024
Warrior StdALABAMA22021
FairviewALABAMA22021
Bay MinetteALABAMA22013
SandersonFLORIDA22021
Doctor InletFLORIDA22006
Miller XrdsFLORIDA22018
Hixtown SwmpFLORIDA22023
BloxhamFLORIDA22022
CallahanFLORIDA22024
Oak Grove 2FLORIDA22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.