BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Swallow-tailed Kite In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainBirds of prey

Swallow-tailed Kite in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 969% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

+969%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
115Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Swallow-tailed Kite in Southeastern Coastal Plain. See the full index history below.

Swallow-tailed Kite In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Swallow-tailed Kite in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 41% by 2030 — from 0.46 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.27 (95% range 0.17–0.38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-41%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.27Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.17–0.3895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swallow-tailed Kite in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 41% by 2030 — from 0.46 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.27 (95% range 0.17–0.38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.250.150.36
20270.260.150.36
20280.260.160.37
20290.270.160.37
20300.270.170.38

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Swallow-tailed Kite in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Doctors Inlet 2FLORIDA82016
ApalachicolaFLORIDA72025
Harrietts BlGEORGIA72025
SupplyNORTH-CAROLINA72025
Gainestown FerryALABAMA62012
BloxhamFLORIDA62025
PittsGEORGIA62025
OwensboroGEORGIA52025
RiderwoodALABAMA42019
MadridALABAMA42023
Alligator PtFLORIDA42023
Sanderson 2FLORIDA42022
HeadlightGEORGIA42023
Grove HillALABAMA32014
Chacaloochee BayALABAMA32019
BlountstownFLORIDA32025
MiccosukeeFLORIDA32025
SteinhatcheeFLORIDA32025
CouncilGEORGIA32024
Warrior StdALABAMA22021
FairviewALABAMA22021
Bay MinetteALABAMA22013
HilliardFLORIDA22025
SandersonFLORIDA22021
Doctor InletFLORIDA22006

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.