BirdAnalyst
Guild · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Generalists In Virginia

All statesVirginia

54 species in this guild. As a group they are -62%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Generalists as a group have fallen sharply in Virginia, down 62% since 1968.

Generalists In Virginia Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Generalists in Virginia is projected to fall about 48% by 2029 — from 7.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 0.00–8.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-48%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–8.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Generalists in Virginia is projected to fall about 48% by 2029 — from 7.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 0.00–8.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.30.008.9
20264.10.008.7
20274.00.008.5
20283.80.008.4
20293.70.008.2

Member Species In Virginia

Generalists species in Virginia.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Loggerhead ShrikeLaniidae-98%
House SparrowPasseridae-94%
Common GrackleIcteridae-93%
Black-billed CuckooCuculidae-90%
European StarlingSturnidae-77%
Red-winged BlackbirdIcteridae-73%
Seaside SparrowPasserellidae-71%
Rock PigeonColumbidae-66%
Field SparrowPasserellidae-65%
Boat-tailed GrackleIcteridae-64%
Belted KingfisherAlcedinidae-63%
Eastern TowheePasserellidae-62%
Northern MockingbirdMimidae-60%
Yellow-breasted ChatIcteriidae-56%
Brown ThrasherMimidae-56%
Eastern Screech-OwlStrigidae-51%
Blue JayCorvidae-49%
Sharp-shinned HawkAccipitridae-40%
Great Horned OwlStrigidae-33%
Baltimore OrioleIcteridae-31%
American KestrelFalconidae-30%
Gray CatbirdMimidae-28%
Broad-winged HawkAccipitridae-23%
Brown-headed CowbirdIcteridae-23%
Northern CardinalCardinalidae-22%
Mourning DoveColumbidae-21%
Northern HarrierAccipitridae-18%
Ruffed GrousePhasianidae-18%
Yellow-billed CuckooCuculidae-15%
American CrowCorvidae-13%
Indigo BuntingCardinalidae-10%
Chipping SparrowPasserellidae-4%
Song SparrowPasserellidae+32%
Summer TanagerCardinalidae+42%
American GoldfinchFringillidae+46%
Mississippi KiteAccipitridae+56%
Orchard OrioleIcteridae+62%
Scarlet TanagerCardinalidae+78%
Rose-breasted GrosbeakCardinalidae+92%
Ruby-throated HummingbirdTrochilidae+98%
Blue GrosbeakCardinalidae+104%
OspreyPandionidae+127%
Fish CrowCorvidae+154%
Cooper's HawkAccipitridae+185%
Common RavenCorvidae+204%
Red-tailed HawkAccipitridae+228%
Turkey VultureCathartidae+287%
Barred OwlStrigidae+331%
Cedar WaxwingBombycillidae+337%
Black VultureCathartidae+415%
Bald EagleAccipitridae+516%
Wild TurkeyPhasianidae11×
Red-shouldered HawkAccipitridae13×
House FinchFringillidae31×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.