BirdAnalyst
Guild · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Generalists In Virginia

All statesVirginia

11 species in this guild. As a group they are -77%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Generalists as a group have collapsed in Virginia, down 77% since 1968.

Generalists In Virginia Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Generalists in Virginia is projected to fall about 70% by 2030 — from 14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.1 (95% range 0.00–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-70%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±59.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Generalists in Virginia is projected to fall about 70% by 2030 — from 14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.1 (95% range 0.00–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.20.0020
20275.70.0020
20285.10.0019
20294.60.0019
20304.10.0018

Member Species In Virginia

Generalists species in Virginia.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
House SparrowPasseridae-95%
Common GrackleIcteridae-93%
European StarlingSturnidae-78%
Northern MockingbirdMimidae-58%
Rock PigeonColumbidae-56%
Brown-headed CowbirdIcteridae-29%
Mourning DoveColumbidae-22%
American CrowCorvidae-12%
Fish CrowCorvidae+172%
Common RavenCorvidae+245%
House FinchFringillidae29×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.