BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Raven Population Trend in Virginia

All statesGeneralists

Common Raven in Virginia has surged: up 245% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+245%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Raven Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Raven has surged in Virginia: up 245% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Common Raven Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Common Raven in Virginia is projected to fall about 30% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.84–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-30%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.84–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Raven in Virginia is projected to fall about 30% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.84–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.30.751.9
20271.30.771.9
20281.40.791.9
20291.40.812.0
20301.40.842.0

Common Raven Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Common Raven in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Big Meadows2120251993
Shenandoa Np1820251993
Iron Mtn.1020101992
Taylorstown920101985
Front Royal920251993
Hebron 2620252024
Moran620242022
Jerome520251973
Fincastle420251981
Marion419821982
Gr North Mtn420251998
Churchville320251967
Amherst320251980
Concord320212012
Pine Mtn.320241999
Iron Mountain 3320232015
Saltville320241969
Wylliesburg320142014
Hebron320221981
Glenwood320231992
Taylorstown 2320252013
Blacksburg320252004
Star Tannery220192016
W Augusta220251967
Nat Tunnel220242016

Common Raven Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.