BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Raven Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesGeneralists

Common Raven in New Jersey has surged: up 11× on the route-weighted index since 1996.

11×Since 1996TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
22YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Raven Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Raven has surged in New Jersey: up 11× on the route-weighted index since 1996.

Common Raven Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Common Raven in New Jersey is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 0.62 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.45 (95% range 0.10–0.80). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.45Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.10–0.8095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±59.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Raven in New Jersey is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 0.62 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.45 (95% range 0.10–0.80). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19942029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.400.050.74
20260.410.060.76
20270.420.070.77
20280.430.090.78
20290.450.100.80

Common Raven Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Common Raven in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
High Point720241994
Dover620232016
Pottersville420142014
Midvale220142014
Kemah Lake220242014
Friendship220242024
Spraguetown 3120242024
Sandbrook120242022
Ramseysburg120232001
Gillette120222019

Common Raven Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutgeorgiaidahokentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.