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Species · Wyoming · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wilson's Phalarope Population Trend in Wyoming

All statesShorebirds

Wilson's Phalarope in Wyoming has surged: up 145% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+145%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wilson's Phalarope Trends in WyomingNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wilson's Phalarope has surged in Wyoming: up 145% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Wilson's Phalarope Population Forecast in Wyoming

If the recent trend holds, Wilson's Phalarope in Wyoming is projected to fall about 60% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.66 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-60%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.66Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±71%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wilson's Phalarope in Wyoming is projected to fall about 60% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.66 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.650.001.5
20270.660.001.5
20280.660.001.5
20290.660.001.5
20300.660.001.5

Wilson's Phalarope Survey Routes in Wyoming

Routes recording Wilson's Phalarope in Wyoming.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Yoder7020251980
Fontenelle4620251983
Kaycee1320252014
Daniel1219881980
Pathfinder1220251982
Clark1020242024
Natrona619921969
Moose619781977
Dubois520151990
Bill520181998
Elk Horn520022002
Seely 2520082004
Horse Creek520172003
Patrick Draw 2519811981
Clarkelen419781976
Yellowstone420131989
Rozet420171991
Dayton419951981
Anchor420162016
Mayoworth420182018
Riverview420221994
Bucknum420181996
Mtn View420251980
Rawlins419931989
Brookhurst320161969

Wilson's Phalarope Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoidahoillinoisiowakansasminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.