BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wilson's Phalarope Population Trend in Nevada

All statesShorebirds

Wilson's Phalarope in Nevada has surged: up 158% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+158%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wilson's Phalarope Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wilson's Phalarope has surged in Nevada: up 158% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Wilson's Phalarope Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Wilson's Phalarope in Nevada is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±686.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±686.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wilson's Phalarope in Nevada is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±686.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.090.004.3
20230.060.004.2
20240.020.004.2
20250.000.004.2
20260.000.004.2

Wilson's Phalarope Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Wilson's Phalarope in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sand Pass1220061987
Bald Mtn.619921992
Toiyabe Nf620031987
Gardnerville520051992
Dobbin Creek320131978
Dinner Sta219931990
Ranchogrande220021990
Midas120161990
Cortez120211973
Virgin Creek119981995
Eureka120081978
Illipah120092009
Majors Place120141972
Fallon120001995
Silver Peak119691969

Wilson's Phalarope Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoidahoillinoisiowakansasminnesotamontananebraskanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.