BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wilson's Phalarope Population Trend in Washington

All statesShorebirds

Wilson's Phalarope in Washington has fallen sharply: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

-73%Since 1979TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wilson's Phalarope Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wilson's Phalarope has fallen sharply in Washington: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

Wilson's Phalarope Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Wilson's Phalarope in Washington is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±112%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±112%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wilson's Phalarope in Washington is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±112%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.050.000.30
20250.040.000.30
20260.040.000.29
20270.040.000.29
20280.030.000.29

Wilson's Phalarope Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Wilson's Phalarope in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Columbia Nwr2220041992
Othello1019901981
Nighthawk720191996
Tonasket420132000
Wilbur319841984
Chewelah319811981
Brewster220181977
Ewan219951995
Moses Coulee219971997
Odessa220072007
Harrington219841981
Warm Beach120021973
Asotin119981998
Keystone120232023

Wilson's Phalarope Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoidahoillinoisiowakansasminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.