BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wilson's Phalarope Population Trend in Montana

All statesShorebirds

Wilson's Phalarope in Montana has increased: up 29% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+29%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
68Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wilson's Phalarope Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Wilson's Phalarope in Montana. See the full index history below.

Wilson's Phalarope Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Wilson's Phalarope in Montana is projected to rise about 91% by 2030 — from 0.84 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.00–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±106.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+91%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±106.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wilson's Phalarope in Montana is projected to rise about 91% by 2030 — from 0.84 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.00–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±106.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.60.003.2
20271.60.003.2
20281.60.003.2
20291.60.003.2
20301.60.003.2

Wilson's Phalarope Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Wilson's Phalarope in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Malta2020231975
Shawmut1920251979
Wheat Basin1720252018
Sunburst920071968
Harlem720211968
Roy720251989
Ingomar720231976
Ester Lake720242015
Beaverhead620171973
Saco620242015
St Xavier519921983
Gildford520232016
Cabin Creek520252025
Polson419971992
Elliston420251974
Shelby420242015
Augusta320211978
Powderville320231972
Albion320191982
East Glacier Park320212018
Glentana320252015
Dinosaurs H.M.320252019
Roundup320252018
Coleman Coulee320232018
Virgelle220251979

Wilson's Phalarope Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoidahoillinoisiowakansasminnesotanebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.