BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wilson's Phalarope Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesShorebirds

Wilson's Phalarope in North Dakota has edged up: up 23% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+23%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wilson's Phalarope Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Wilson's Phalarope in North Dakota. See the full index history below.

Wilson's Phalarope Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Wilson's Phalarope in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.2 (95% range 1.7–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-0%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.7–6.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wilson's Phalarope in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.2 (95% range 1.7–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.01.56.5
20274.11.66.6
20284.11.66.6
20294.11.66.6
20304.21.76.7

Wilson's Phalarope Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Wilson's Phalarope in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Carson5420251988
Lakota1020091968
Webster1020241989
Bowman1020251967
Parshall1020131982
Montpelier720251990
Lakota 2720252011
Forman620241968
Emerado620061981
Glen Ullin620231982
Danzig 2620252019
Lake George520231967
Buchanan520251967
Solen520252009
Sydney419831969
Horsehead Lk420251980
Dunn Center420221968
Denbigh420251970
Kempton320151967
Carpio320231969
Stanley320181968
Wimbledon220251994
Nash219881988
Regan220231969
Dickinson220141969

Wilson's Phalarope Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoidahoillinoisiowakansasminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-mexicooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.