BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wilson's Phalarope Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesShorebirds

Wilson's Phalarope in North Dakota has increased: up 47% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+47%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wilson's Phalarope Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Wilson's Phalarope in North Dakota. See the full index history below.

Wilson's Phalarope Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Wilson's Phalarope in North Dakota is projected to rise about 48% by 2029 — from 2.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.1 (95% range 1.6–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+48%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–6.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wilson's Phalarope in North Dakota is projected to rise about 48% by 2029 — from 2.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.1 (95% range 1.6–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.01.46.5
20264.01.56.5
20274.01.56.6
20284.11.56.6
20294.11.66.6

Wilson's Phalarope Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Wilson's Phalarope in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Braddock4520221988
Sheyenne Lk1520241980
Carson1320241988
Lakota1020091968
Webster1020241989
Parshall1020131982
Lake George920221967
Forman620241968
Emerado620061981
Lakota 2620242011
Horsehead Lk520241980
Glen Ullin520151982
Sydney419831969
Edgeley420241980
Buchanan420241967
Dunn Center420221968
Kempton320151967
Cooperstown320231970
Regan320191969
Carpio320231969
Stanley320181968
Wimbledon220241994
Nash219881988
Dickinson220141969
Tobacco220181970

Wilson's Phalarope Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoidahoillinoisiowakansasminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-mexicooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.