BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wilson's Phalarope Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesShorebirds

Wilson's Phalarope in Nebraska has risen sharply: up 53% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+53%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wilson's Phalarope Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wilson's Phalarope has risen sharply in Nebraska: up 53% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Wilson's Phalarope Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Wilson's Phalarope in Nebraska is projected to fall about 27% by 2030 — from 0.22 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±107.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.16Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±107.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wilson's Phalarope in Nebraska is projected to fall about 27% by 2030 — from 0.22 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±107.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.210.001.8
20270.190.001.8
20280.180.001.8
20290.170.001.8
20300.160.001.7

Wilson's Phalarope Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Wilson's Phalarope in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Berea1320001984
Stratton1020162016
Kimball920152015
Oglala Nat. Grass.420112002
Crescent Lk420251980
Wheeler Co420241979
Paxton320122007
Agate 2220252008
Sparta220192019
Swan Lake220251984
Gordon220251976
Arthur220242019
Murray Lake220132005
Mullen220172015
Nenzel220252022
Johnstown119951995
Piester Lake120191967
Kennedy120241995
Table120162007
Brownlee120172004
Crookston120222022
Bassett120242019
Chambers120252025
Tilden120192019

Wilson's Phalarope Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoidahoillinoisiowakansasminnesotamontananevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.