BirdAnalyst
Species · Idaho · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wilson's Phalarope Population Trend in Idaho

All statesShorebirds

Wilson's Phalarope in Idaho has collapsed: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-78%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wilson's Phalarope Trends in IdahoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wilson's Phalarope has collapsed in Idaho: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Wilson's Phalarope Population Forecast in Idaho

If the recent trend holds, Wilson's Phalarope in Idaho is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±177.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±177.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wilson's Phalarope in Idaho is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±177.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.001.5
20260.000.001.5
20270.000.001.5
20280.000.001.5
20290.000.001.5

Wilson's Phalarope Survey Routes in Idaho

Routes recording Wilson's Phalarope in Idaho.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Leadore1120011976
Twin Buttes819991999
Squirrel719991999
Blackft Res520161986
Challis519891989
Dubois420242024
Acequia419791979
Carey420122012
Mud Lake420141988
Pocatello319801980
Iron Springs320221988
Mivoden219771977
Kyle Canyon219861986
Baker220161974
Cascade219841971
Centerville220082008
Craters219881988
Springfield219961973
Triangle220082005
Sawtooth City 2220162016
Picabo219931988
Bates219961988
Cedar Hill220222013
Cabarton219901985
Henry119771977

Wilson's Phalarope Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoillinoisiowakansasminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.