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Species · Oregon · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wilson's Phalarope Population Trend in Oregon

All statesShorebirds

Wilson's Phalarope in Oregon has collapsed: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-78%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wilson's Phalarope Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wilson's Phalarope has collapsed in Oregon: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Wilson's Phalarope Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Wilson's Phalarope in Oregon is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 0.14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.70). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±58.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wilson's Phalarope in Oregon is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 0.14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.70). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.130.000.73
20270.120.000.73
20280.120.000.72
20290.110.000.71
20300.100.000.70

Wilson's Phalarope Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Wilson's Phalarope in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Catlow Rim6020212015
Fish Lake4220211972
Princeton1219851972
Summit Pr420251986
Lone Rock319981998
Malheur Nwr319881988
Joseph320221990
Malheur Res.320222022
Sheaville320252014
Trout Creek320252021
Blitzen 2220252000
Bridgeport219871987
Dell Spring219871979
Wagontire219711971
Buchanan219761976
Bly 2220252008
Mount Vernon220181987
Clover Creek219951974
Blizzard Gap220231984
Harney Lake220241993
Three Forks120112005
Ordnance119771971
Albee120212021
Zumwalt120051995
Lapham Res.119941994

Wilson's Phalarope Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.