BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Crested Caracara

FalconidaeBirds of preyCaracara plancus

Crested Caracara has surged: up 945% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+945%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
167RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Crested Caracara

The Crested Caracara (Caracara plancus) is a North American member of the Falcons & Caracaras (Falconidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the birds of prey.

Size
10–23.5 in long (25–60 cm) — a streamlined raptor (typical for the family)
Habitat
Open country, woodlands, cliffs and wetlands, hunting from the air or a high perch.
Diet
Live prey — small mammals, birds, reptiles, fish and large insects (carrion for vultures).
Range
Recorded on 167 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 4 states, most concentrated in the Oaks and Prairies.
Family
Falconidae · Birds of prey

Notable Crested Caracara TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Crested Caracara. See the full index history below.

Crested Caracara Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Crested Caracara is projected to rise about 29% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.10–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+29%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.10–0.1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Crested Caracara is projected to rise about 29% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.10–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.120.090.15
20260.120.090.15
20270.130.090.16
20280.130.100.16
20290.130.100.16

Where the Crested Caracara Is Detected

BBS routes recording Crested Caracara, sized by most recent count.

Crested Caracara Population Trend by State

Crested Caracara population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Arizonainsufficient datan/a6
Florida14×198725
Louisiana+492%201311
Texas+634%1969125

Crested Caracara Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Crested Caracara population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Edwards Plateau13×199617
Oaks and Prairies13×196945
Peninsular Florida13×198725
Chihuahuan Desert+174%20094
Tamaulipan Brushlands+497%196928
Gulf Coastal Prairie35×198133

Crested Caracara Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 945% since 1969.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.