BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Crested Caracara In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieGeneralists

Crested Caracara in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 35× on the route-weighted index since 1981.

35×Since 1981TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Crested Caracara has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 35× on the route-weighted index since 1981.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Crested Caracara in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 37% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.5 (95% range 2.4–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+37%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.4–4.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Crested Caracara in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 37% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.5 (95% range 2.4–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.22.14.3
20263.32.24.4
20273.42.24.5
20283.42.34.6
20293.52.44.6

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Crested Caracara in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PetronilaTEXAS342022
KatyTEXAS122024
Oyster LakeTEXAS122024
ChinquapinTEXAS112024
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS62023
WoodlawnLOUISIANA52021
Goliad PrairieTEXAS52016
McfaddinTEXAS52016
IndianolaTEXAS42024
StowellTEXAS42023
Rock IslandTEXAS42024
Loyola BeachTEXAS42009
Moon LakeTEXAS42011
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS42022
Bayside 3TEXAS32024
DanburyTEXAS22024
BaysideTEXAS22003
Bayside 2TEXAS22004
HackberryLOUISIANA12016
EstherLOUISIANA12023
MauriceLOUISIANA12024
KaplanLOUISIANA12019
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA12024
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA12018
Forked IslandLOUISIANA12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.