BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Crested Caracara Population Trend in Florida

All statesGeneralists

Crested Caracara in Florida has surged: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1987.

14×Since 1987TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Crested Caracara Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Crested Caracara has surged in Florida: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1987.

Crested Caracara Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Crested Caracara in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.44 (95% range 0.27–0.60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.44Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.27–0.6095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Crested Caracara in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.44 (95% range 0.27–0.60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.400.230.56
20260.410.240.57
20270.420.250.58
20280.430.260.59
20290.440.270.60

Crested Caracara Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Crested Caracara in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Crewsville720232000
St Lucie620242008
Lake Buffum520242011
Pennywash Cr520241998
Clewiston520232015
Palmdale420231987
Indiantown 2320182018
Myakka Head320092004
Kenansville320241969
Sandy 2320242016
Wildernes Pk220102005
Childs220211994
Sunniland Gr220212021
Gardner219981987
Arbuckle220192017
Devils Gardn220241997
Alva220232003
Myakka Head 2220192013
Holey Land120192019
Ridge Harbor120242009
Ft Lonesome120242000
Indiantown120151999
Salvista119781978
Kissimmee120211987
Sandy120152001

Crested Caracara Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.