BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Crested Caracara Population Trend in Florida

All statesBirds of prey

Crested Caracara in Florida has surged: up 987% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

+987%Since 1987TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Crested Caracara Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Crested Caracara in Florida. See the full index history below.

Crested Caracara Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Crested Caracara in Florida is projected to rise about 194% by 2030 — from 0.14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.42 (95% range 0.24–0.60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+194%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.42Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.24–0.6095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Crested Caracara in Florida is projected to rise about 194% by 2030 — from 0.14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.42 (95% range 0.24–0.60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.380.200.57
20270.390.210.57
20280.400.220.58
20290.410.230.59
20300.420.240.60

Crested Caracara Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Crested Caracara in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Crewsville720232000
Lake Buffum520242011
Pennywash Cr520241998
Clewiston520232015
St Lucie420252008
Palmdale420231987
Indiantown 2320182018
Myakka Head320092004
Sandy 2320242016
Devils Gardn320251997
Wildernes Pk220102005
Childs220211994
Sunniland Gr220212021
Gardner219981987
Arbuckle220192017
Alva220232003
Myakka Head 2220192013
Holey Land120192019
Ridge Harbor120242009
Ft Lonesome120242000
Kenansville120251969
Indiantown120151999
Salvista119781978
Kissimmee120211987
Sandy120152001

Crested Caracara Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.