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Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Crested Caracara Population Trend in Texas

All statesBirds of prey

Crested Caracara in Texas has surged: up 561% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+561%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
129Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Crested Caracara Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Crested Caracara has surged in Texas: up 561% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Crested Caracara Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Crested Caracara in Texas is projected to rise about 36% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.5–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+36%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Crested Caracara in Texas is projected to rise about 36% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.5–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.91.32.4
20271.91.42.4
20281.91.42.5
20292.01.42.5
20302.01.52.5

Crested Caracara Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Crested Caracara in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
La Pryor2220102001
Agua Nueva1720231969
Brite1420251994
Mirando City1220251970
Millett 21220242013
Hondo1120251971
Dilley1120252018
Randado920251967
Raymondville920251987
Guerra920251988
Encinal 2920252011
Pedro Creek820051998
George West720251967
Comstock720252005
Catarina 3720252018
Rachal620251970
Winnie620252003
Danbury620251990
Katy620252004
Harper620252012
Catarina 2620172011
Progreso620082003
Allen Creek620251999
Hinkles Fer520251971
Schroeder519971969

Crested Caracara Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.