BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Crested Caracara Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Crested Caracara in Texas has surged: up 634% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+634%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
125Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Crested Caracara Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Crested Caracara has surged in Texas: up 634% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Crested Caracara Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Crested Caracara in Texas is projected to rise about 53% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.5–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+53%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Crested Caracara in Texas is projected to rise about 53% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.5–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.91.32.4
20261.91.42.4
20271.91.42.5
20282.01.42.5
20292.01.52.5

Crested Caracara Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Crested Caracara in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Petronila3420221999
La Pryor2220102001
Agua Nueva1720231969
Katy1220242004
Oyster Lake1220241997
Millett 21220242013
Chinquapin1120241995
Brite1120241994
Mirando City1020241970
Randado920241967
Encinal 2920242011
Guerra820231988
Pedro Creek820051998
George West720241967
Harper620232012
Catarina 2620172011
Progreso620082003
Loyola Beach 2620232010
Cavasara Cr.620231995
Schroeder519971969
Muldoon520241987
Sejita520241994
Laredo520231994
Bonner520222006
Heidelberg520242014

Crested Caracara Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.