BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Crested Caracara In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaBirds of prey

Crested Caracara in Peninsular Florida has surged: up 873% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

+873%Since 1987TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Crested Caracara has surged in Peninsular Florida: up 873% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

Crested Caracara In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Crested Caracara in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 183% by 2030 — from 0.23 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.65 (95% range 0.37–0.93). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+183%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.65Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.37–0.9395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Crested Caracara in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 183% by 2030 — from 0.23 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.65 (95% range 0.37–0.93). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.590.310.87
20270.610.330.89
20280.620.340.90
20290.630.350.91
20300.650.370.93

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Crested Caracara in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CrewsvilleFLORIDA72023
Pennywash CrFLORIDA52024
ClewistonFLORIDA52023
Lake BuffumFLORIDA52024
St LucieFLORIDA42025
PalmdaleFLORIDA42023
Myakka HeadFLORIDA32009
Devils GardnFLORIDA32025
Indiantown 2FLORIDA32018
Sandy 2FLORIDA32024
ChildsFLORIDA22021
Sunniland GrFLORIDA22021
GardnerFLORIDA21998
ArbuckleFLORIDA22019
AlvaFLORIDA22023
Myakka Head 2FLORIDA22019
Wildernes PkFLORIDA22010
Ft LonesomeFLORIDA12024
KenansvilleFLORIDA12025
IndiantownFLORIDA12015
SalvistaFLORIDA11978
KissimmeeFLORIDA12021
SandyFLORIDA12015
Holey LandFLORIDA12019
Ridge HarborFLORIDA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.