BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Crested Caracara In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsBirds of prey

Crested Caracara in Tamaulipan Brushlands has surged: up 488% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+488%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Crested Caracara has surged in Tamaulipan Brushlands: up 488% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Crested Caracara In Tamaulipan Brushlands Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Crested Caracara in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 8.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.7 (95% range 6.5–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.5–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Crested Caracara in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 8.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.7 (95% range 6.5–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.15.812
20279.36.013
20289.46.113
20299.66.313
20309.76.513

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Crested Caracara in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
La PryorTEXAS222010
Agua NuevaTEXAS172023
Mirando CityTEXAS122025
Millett 2TEXAS122024
HondoTEXAS112025
DilleyTEXAS112025
RandadoTEXAS92025
RaymondvilleTEXAS92025
GuerraTEXAS92025
Encinal 2TEXAS92025
Pedro CreekTEXAS82005
George WestTEXAS72025
Catarina 3TEXAS72025
RachalTEXAS62025
Catarina 2TEXAS62017
ProgresoTEXAS62008
SejitaTEXAS52024
LaredoTEXAS52023
HeidelbergTEXAS52024
ZapataTEXAS41987
El SauzTEXAS42023
MillettTEXAS42012
KingsvilleTEXAS32024
CatarinaTEXAS32010
Cavasara Cr.TEXAS32025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.