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Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Crested Caracara In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauGeneralists

Crested Caracara in Edwards Plateau has surged: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1996.

13×Since 1996TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Crested Caracara has surged in Edwards Plateau: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1996.

Crested Caracara In Edwards Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Crested Caracara in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 71% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 1.2–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+71%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Crested Caracara in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 71% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 1.2–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19932029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.60.942.3
20261.71.002.3
20271.71.12.4
20281.81.12.4
20291.81.22.5

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Crested Caracara in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HarperTEXAS62023
BoerneTEXAS32024
ManorTEXAS32024
LeakeyTEXAS32023
UtopiaTEXAS22024
Indian MtnTEXAS22019
MontellTEXAS22022
RockspringTEXAS22024
Valley SpgsTEXAS12024
San SabaTEXAS12024
PidcokeTEXAS12017
KempnerTEXAS12024
AdamsvilleTEXAS12023
Dripping SpgTEXAS12024
Pidcoke 2TEXAS12024
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS12024
Allen CreekTEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.