BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Crested Caracara In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauBirds of prey

Crested Caracara in Edwards Plateau has surged: up 16× on the route-weighted index since 1996.

16×Since 1996TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
31YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Crested Caracara has surged in Edwards Plateau: up 16× on the route-weighted index since 1996.

Crested Caracara In Edwards Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Crested Caracara in Edwards Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.9 (95% range 1.3–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Crested Caracara in Edwards Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.9 (95% range 1.3–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19932030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.71.02.4
20271.81.12.4
20281.81.22.5
20291.91.22.5
20301.91.32.6

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Crested Caracara in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HarperTEXAS62025
Allen CreekTEXAS62025
Manor 2TEXAS42025
San SabaTEXAS32025
Dripping SpgTEXAS32025
ManorTEXAS32024
LeakeyTEXAS32023
Valley SpgsTEXAS22025
RockspringTEXAS22025
BoerneTEXAS12025
UtopiaTEXAS12025
PidcokeTEXAS12017
KempnerTEXAS12024
AdamsvilleTEXAS12025
Indian MtnTEXAS12025
Pidcoke 2TEXAS12024
MontellTEXAS12025
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.